For mine, the match of the round is straightforward, Leongatha v Moe. You don’t need to overcomplicate it. Two sides that finished top three last year, both relevant again, both with enough top-end talent to shape the business end of the season.
On paper, this is as good a game as you’ll see.
Leongatha do what Leongatha do. Consistent, system-driven, no panic. They’ve added Jack Sheridan, a ruckman from a strong league, and a handful of lower league and Under 18 GF players to a list that won both seniors and reserves last year. More importantly, they get a full run at players they didn’t have consistently, Tom Marriott through the middle, and Garham and Ireland with continuity and no VFL interruptions. They run a good program and it shows. Strong method, a tight group, experienced leaders, and a coaching group that doesn’t get rattled.
Moe have gone the other way, super aggressive at the top end. Harmes, D’Arcy, Mullane headline some of the best talent you could bring in. That’s serious quality and it covers the partial loss of Riley Baldi with SANFL commitments. On paper, their best is as good as anyone’s. The question isn’t talent, it’s how quickly it all clicks.
They’ll be asked some serious questions this weekend, and for me it’s whether they can match it in the contest.
The game being at Leongatha matters, but maybe not as much as people think. Their record there is outstanding, 36–5 since COVID but Moe have shown they don’t fear the trip. They’ve beaten them there twice recently and won’t be intimidated.
When you dig into it, the numbers tell a clear story. Both sides are elite with ball in hand. Ranked one and two for scoring from inside 50s, give either of them time and space and they’ll hurt you. That’s not where this game is won.
The gap sits around the contest.
Moe were mid-pack for clearances and bottom half for contested ball last year. That’s not where you want to be against Leongatha, because that’s exactly where they’re strongest. They don’t beat themselves, and they don’t get bullied around the ball.
If Moe can’t lift in that area, they’ll be chasing all day.
The intercept marking stat from 2025 was interesting, Moe ranked one, Leongatha six. That surprised me. But it suggests Moe look to control the game from behind the ball, which makes sense with Keilty, Myles Poholke and Brodie Smith across half back. Leongatha are different, they win it at the source and go forward with method. The way Maskell controls games off half back probably means those numbers are slightly skewed by how dominant Leongatha are through the middle.
Team balance will matter. Keilty at centre half back is the right call, he’s a genuine superstar player. Match-ups will be interesting, particularly Pellicano’s role, because Moe’s back six will have their hands full with Ireland and Garham. Up the other end, Moe’s scoring has revolved around isolating Crocker and Leigh Poholke deep. If Crocker doesn’t play, that changes things. D’Arcy is a serious talent from what I’ve heard, so they may open it up and try to spread the load via Pepper, Poholke and there midfielders.
The younger Moe group,’Woodall, Masters, Shields, Cheffers, all Power products they will bring speed and energy. That helps, but speed only matters if you win it at the source first.
For Leongatha, there aren’t many holes. Strong spine, multiple forward options including Dyson Heppell, organised behind the ball, and they understand how to manage tempo. They don’t get dragged into chaos.
Leongatha will want to limit Keilty’s influence (could Pelicans do this) but also with their ball movement and angles, which they do as well as anyone. Moe, on the other hand, need to make Maskell defend and not let him roll off, and they won’t want to give Marriott too much room around stoppage.
In the end, it comes back to basics.
Clearances and contested possession decide this. If Moe bridge that gap, they’re right in it. If not, Leongatha control the game.
I can’t go past Leongatha. Too settled, too reliable, and until someone knocks them off properly, they’re the benchmark.
Leongatha by 12 points.
Around the grounds: Traralgon should handle Bairnsdale comfortably. Maffra over Sale. Drouin and Warragul is interesting, but Warragul’s experience probably gets it done. Morwell v Wonthaggi could go either way, but being at Morwell tips it their way.
Happy first round.